A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the country and triggered chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim this point is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, making it uncertain if and when there will be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, neither author advocates unity or the status quo. Both writes two articles that strive for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and encourage dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an recognition of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they favour unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.
"Authorities in Dublin must determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his era is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will in the end lose but each side has has something to learn from the other's positions."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must join the debate, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
